15 Sep '05 - + 16 - 18 Die Wahl 2005
On Sunday, Germans go to the polls to choose their next Chancellor. The
process if very different from how we select Presidents, but many of
the debates and issues would seem at home in America. If all goes
as expected, the leadership of Germany will be different, but it's
possible that nothing will change.
The main competitors for the Chancellorship are the incumbent
Gerhard Schröder of the center-left
Social Democratic Party (SPD) and
Angela Merkel of the center-right
Christian Democratic Union
(CDU/CSU). Most observers expect Schröder not to be re-elected,
with Merkel taking his job. However, the electoral system in
Germany is more complicated than America's (even considering the
Electoral College), so some interesting things might happen.
Germany has a complex parliamentary system, so the voters will
actually be casting two votes, neither for Chancellor. One vote is
for a local representative member of the Bundestag and the other is for
their preferred party (more details from
Wikipedia).
The Chancellor will be the person who can build a large enough
coalition in the Bundestag to have at least 50% support. Because
"third parties" are much stronger in Germany than they are in
America, the success of those parties will be instrumental in
determining who the Chancellor will be and the government that the
Chancellor will be able to form.
For example, the SPD didn't have enough representation in parliament by
itself after the last two election, so they've been allied with the
Green Party.
Currently the SPD is polling at about 34% and the Greens at about 7%,
so that coalition most certainly will not continuing governing the
country. They would come close to the necessary majority if the
formed a coalition with the formerly-Communist
Left Party (polling at about 8%), but that's unlikely because the SPD does not want to make that coalition.
On the other side, the CDU/CSU is polling at about 42% and their coalition allies, the
Free Democratic Party (FDP), are polling at about 7%. The total of 49% is just shy of the necessary total to make a governing coalition.
Other minor parties take up the last few percentage points that either coalition would need to be able to govern.
So, the result seen as most likely (but desired by no one) is that the
next government will have to be a "Grand Coalition" of the SPD and the
CDU/CSU. Merkel would be selected as the Chancellor since her
party had the most seats, but she would lead a weak, divided
government. Schröder would probably return to the private
sector. The only previous German government to have such a
coalition was
Kurt Georg Kiesinger's
utterly forgettable tenure in the late 1960's. Merkel would very
much like to avoid such a scenario, because a Grand Coalition would be
too divided to make significant changes in Germany's course.
The changes Germany needs most are economic. Germany's economy is
not doing well. It's not a bad situation when compared to most
Asian, Latin American, or African economies, of course, but Germany is
not keeping pace with its European peers. For example, Germany is
currently last in the EU in terms of job creation; according to
the CDU/CSU numbers, Germany lost 1000 jobs/week last year. Additionally,
with the expansion of the EU to include poorer eastern neighbors,
Germans feel a lot of pressure about losing their jobs to lower-paying
competitors in Bucharest, Krakow, etc.
It was largely these economic concerns that lead to having the election
this year. Unlike America, in which federal elections happen at
regular intervals defined by the Constitution, elections in Germany can
happen at any time within a four-year period. Typically, the
elections are almost fully four years apart so that the ruling party
keeps hold of their power as long as possible. This time,
however, Schröder called an early election because state elections in
North Rhine-Westphalia
gave surprising support to the CDU/CSU because of the week economy, weakening the SPD in Berlin to
the point that Schröder had lost his mandate. He called early
elections on the hope that he would be able to take advantage of his
greater name-recognition and electoral experience and eke out a victory
against the favored Merkel. Most likely, the strategy will fail.
If Merkel wins, the biggest change could be in taxation and fiscal policy. The
German economy
is currently a "social market economy", meaning that they have
sacrificed some financial growth and agility in order to maintain a
high standard of living for all. In many ways, this has been
remarkably successful, as Germans have significantly more vacation,
better health care, lower infant mortality, and more social services in
general than Americans have. However, after the €1.25 trillion
cost of reunifying East and West, some are questioning the
approach. Ireland and the United Kingdom have had much better
economic growth the past few years than countries like Germany and
France by allowing their economies to be more flexible while providing
less security to individuals. Rejection of this approach (called
neo-liberalism and often derided as "heartless" or "American") was one
of the primary reasons that the French voted against the EU
Constitution in May.
One specific change proposed by Merkel's controversial shadow Finance Minister,
Paul Kirchhof,
would drop Germany's complicated income tax system in favor of a flat
25% tax. Given the reaction to such proposals in American, one
can imagine the responses this proposal has received here, from
enthusiastic approval by the free-market-oriented FDP (motto: "as much
government as needed, as little government as possible!") and strident
opposition from the formerly-Communist Left Party.
Interesting side stories abound in the election. For example,
will left-leaning women vote against their party to support Merkel, the
first women ever to be a major candidate for Chancellor in
Germany? How comfortable will the traditionally conservative and
Catholic CDU/CSU be if they are lead by a coalition with FDP since
Merkel is a divorced Protestant woman, and the leader of the FDP,
Guido Westerwelle, is gay?
As an American expatriate living temporarily in Germany, I found
watching the process to be interesting. The election cycle here
is much shorter than it is in the U.S., so there seems to be much less
time for fund-raising and mud-slinging here than in the U.S. I've
seen only a few TV commercials, and none of them have been attack ads
like we saw last year in Bush-Kerry. The primary means of
promoting candidates seem to be setting up tables and tents in
public spaces and
posters. Often, there are posters on every tree or lamppost for a block, and sometimes there are huge billboards.
I also watched the second and final debate a couple days ago with a few
Germans. Instead of simply pairing Schröder and Merkel, this
debate also included the leaders of their respective potential
coalition partners. My German isn't good enough to have
understood it all, but they talked a lot about the economy,
immigration, and Iraq. The candidates all made points that made
my hosts nod in agreement or hoot in laughter. More importantly,
the candidates answered the questions they were asked and often talked
directly to each other.
I was jealous. I wish our debates were that useful. I also
like the idea of having the election on a Sunday (when few people work)
instead of on a Tuesday.
In all likelihood, the Chancellorship of Germany will change next
week. Angela Merkel will be the next Chancellor of Germany, but
she might be saddled with a large, ungainly, and unstable coalition
that means that Germany will continue having trouble addressing its
economic and foreign policy issues.
(poll numbers from
here)
Only one comment:
The funniest thing of the Wahl 2005 is that the election is not over jet.
Dresden will vote 2 weeks later, due to the death of a candidate in this city.
Tom Wolfenstein (link) - 22 September '05 - 15:53
